Hotspots (ADP) via Draft Position
The data below comes from the parent data sheet “ADP Hotspots” <– click to go directly there
The difference here is that I went through the ADPs of each player and linked them to where in the draft they go, based upon where you’re drafting from. For instance; if you’re drafting from picks 1, 2, 3 or 4, then you’re also drafting from the last four picks of the second round… the first four in the third round etc. So now, based on the colors…
- The deeper the red, the higher rate in which that position (rows) gets drafted through that rounds (columns) draft spots
- White = that position is drafted at an average rate
- The deeper the blue, the lower rate in which that position (rows) gets drafted through that rounds (columns) draft spots
… you can both, (1) see what positions people typically are liking/drafting from in upcoming rounds and (2) see what positions are popular at your current pick.
For instance, if you’re drafting from an early spot (picks 1 to 4) and you’re sitting there at the back-end of the second round, debating between taking a running back and a wide receiver, you can see that in the early part of the third round… players often find a wide receiver that they like. So, you may conclude that you should take a running back with your second round pick and a wide receiver with your third round pick. Because, there’s a good chance that those running backs are more coveted by other drafters.
Take that same scenario, and pretend that you’re also someone who likes to have one of the top quarterbacks on your roster. Yes, you could take one right now (because of course you can) but, you’ll also notice that in rounds 4 and 5, players often find a quarterback that they’re happy with. So, by going running back and wide receiver now… maybe you’re not putting one of your quarterback targets at a high risk of being taken. Or, at least, you’ll be happy (enough) with the options available.
Lastly, visa versa… if you wish to take a QB at the end of the second round, you can see that in the 4th round you should have some options available at the RB position that you may be happy with. Personally, planning ahead (and in the event that I want to take a higher end QB) I’d expect to work rounds 2 through 5 like so: (2) RB, (3) WR, (4) RB, (5) QB… given that information, I’d also want to take a WR in the first so I’m not getting my WR 2 in the 6th round.
You can use this information in concert with information from the parent sheet (linked above) and that also works nicely. I found myself doing that often enough while I worked on my Zero vs Hero running back strategy video which I have embedded below the data.
